山东省耕地生产效率及影响因素分析

The Analysis of the Farmland Productivity and its Influencing Factors in Shandong

本文运用数据包络分析(DEA)方法,对1999-2008年山东省耕地利用效率进行测算,通过Tobit模型分析影响耕地生产效率的主要因素。研究结果表明:近十年来山东省耕地利用的综合效率均值为0.883,耕地生产效率较高;将山东省各地区耕地生产效率划分为三类,第一类地区耕地生产效率最优,分布范围较广,集中分布于山东省中部。第二类地区纯技术效率低下,分布较分散,主要包括济宁、德州、青岛和潍坊;第三类地区规模效率较低,分布于山东省东部沿海,主要包括滨州、东营、威海;有效灌溉面积、耕地复种指数、单位功耗率等因素对山东省耕地利用效率具有不同方向和不同强度的影响,其中耕地复种指数对耕地生产效率的影响作用最大且显著,单位耕地功耗率与有效灌溉面积对耕地生产效率呈显著的负相关,而二、三产业比重对耕地生产效率的影响不是很大;耕地生产效率的提高应针对本地区的实际情况,既要注重生产过程中的资源投入比列,又要改善耕地生产的外部环境。

This paper measures the Arable Land use efficiency of Shandong Province during 1999-2008 by utilizing the method of data envelopment analysis （DEA）, and ana-lyzes the main factors influencing arable productivity based on the Tobit model, the re-sult indicates that the mean value of comprehensive efficiency of arable land use in Shandong Province over the past decade is 0.883; by dividing the arable land production efficiency into three categories, we can find that the first-class regions have the optimal arable land production efficiency, distribution with wider range, concentration in the cen- tral of Shandong province, the pure technical efficiency of the second category is low, with distribution more dispersing, mainly including Dezhou, Jining Qingdao and Weifang; The third kind in scale is low efficiency, pointing to the east coast of Shandong province, including Binzhou, Dongying, Weihai; Besides, the result shows that the effec-tive irrigation area, cultivated land crop multiple index, the unit power consumption rate of cultivated land and other factors have an impact on arable land production efficiency with different direction and the influence of different intensity, of which, cultivated land multiple crop index of arable land production efficiency with significant impact of the biggest, the unit power consumption rate and effective irrigation area play a significant negative correlation role in arable land production efficiency, while the combined propor-tion of secondary and tertiary industry to the influence of cultivated land production effi-ciency is high but not significant. To promote the arable land production efficiency, we should act according to the actual situation of the region, not only pay attention to the reasonable resources input scale during production, but also improve the external environ- ment of arable land production.