货币政策对三次产业的影响效应分析——基于货币供给量的实证分析

Analysis of the Effects of Monetary Policy on the Three Industries——An Empirical Analysis of Monetary Supply

由于三大产业的市场结构差异、行业自身的异质性等因素,实行统一的货币政策会对三次产业产生不同的影响。文章运用VAR模型分析了1986-2011年间中国三次产业产值对广义货币供给(M2)增长率的不同反应。研究表明:第一产业对货币供给反应最大,第三产业次之,第二产业最小。因此,应该对不同的产业及行业实行差别化的货币政策,加快推进利率市场化改革进程,改善资金约束条件,对货币政策的重新定位需要着重考虑货币政策的价格化和市场化。

Because of the difference of the market structure of the industry, the industry itself heterogeneity factors, a unified monetary policy will produce different effects on the three industries. This paper uses a VAR model from 1986 to 2011 to state the different responses of the three industries output value of the growth rate of the broad money supply （M2）. The results show that the primary industry has the biggest reaction to the money supply, after that is the third industry, the last is the second industry. Finally, the paper proposes policy recommendations to optimize the industrial structure in China.