贸易余额与贸易条件的S曲线特征——基于中国总体贸易和中美双边贸易的实证检验

Empirical Analysis on Trade Balance’s and Trade Terms’S Curvilinear Character for China’s Foreign Trade and Sino- US Bilateral Trade

长期以来,贸易余额与贸易条件之间的短期动态时间路径表现为典型的J曲线现象,即贬值之后贸易平衡状况会先恶化后改善。然而,近年来的一些研究发现贸易余额与贸易条件之间的短期动态时间路径存在S曲线特征,即贸易余额与贸易条件的当前变化和未来变化呈现负相关,而与贸易条件的过去变化呈现正相关。实证分析发现中国贸易数据表现出明显的S曲线特征,而中美双边贸易数据并未表现出明显的S曲线特征。

For a long time, there is a J curve dynamic relationship between the trade surplus and trade conditions. However, in recent years, some study has found a S curve dynamic relationship between them. After a empirical analysis, we find that there exists a real S curve dynamic relationship in China trade data, and there is no that kind of relationship between Sino - US trade data.