操控性应计转回周期的模型研究

The Research of Model for Discretionary Accrual Reversal Cycle

研究发现管理层的机会主义行为不仅受到操控性应计累积总量的约束,同时还受到转回速度的约束。因此作者建立了操控性应计累积总量转回的模型,并用操控性应计的自相关系数估计了操控性应计的转回周期。通过选取近10年深市和沪市全部A股样本,研究发现我国操控性应计转回的平均周期为4年,操控性应计在转回周期中对净资产收益率存在制约作用,与预期一致。研究结论对我国盈余管理研究,分析师预测具有重要意义。

Management＇ s opportunistic behavior is not only under the constraints of the total accumulated accrual, but also with the reversal of the speed. This paper estimates the reversal cycle by a reversal model of cumulative accruals with autocorrelation coefficient. Empirical test is made based on last decade samples of Shenzhen and Shanghai A-share. Results show that the average period of reversal cycle is four years. As expected the discretionary accruals have negative effect to the role in the following reversal cycle.