我国外汇储备增长对通货膨胀的影响——基于边界检验技术的实证分析

The Relationship between Foreign Exchange Reserves and Inflation in China ——Empirical Analysis Based on Bounds Testing Technique

笔者基于卢卡斯总供给模型,推导出外汇储备和通货膨胀之间的理论关系模型,并运用基于边界检验技术的ARDL模型方法,使用我国1997年～2010年的月度数据,对外汇储备和通货膨胀之间的关系进行了检验。结果表明,外汇储备增长率和通货膨胀率之间在长、短期内都具有显著的正相关关系,并且前者对后者的长期影响能力高于短期;平均来看,外汇储备变化率可以解释通货膨胀周期性变化的21.3%。基于此,笔者提出了加强我国外汇储备管理、降低其对通货膨胀影响的政策建议。

With the help of Lucas aggregate supply model, the paper empirically studies the relationship between foreign exchange reserves growth and inflation rate by sampling data from January 1997 to December 2010 with ARDL model. The empirical results show that foreign exchange reserves in long-term and short-term has significantly positive effects on inflation; Averagely,21.3% of inflation rate is caused by the foreign exchange reserves. Therefore we should strengthen the management of Chinese foreign exchange reserve to control the growth speed of foreign exchange reserves to reduce its impacts on inflation.