人力资本推动产业结构升级:我国二次人口红利获取之解

On Human Capital's Promoting Upgrading of Industrial Structure ——the Solution for Obtaining Second Human Bonus in China

通过构建一个分析框架,阐述了人力资本影响我国产业结构升级的三个机制:技术进步,收入提高以及城市化;并以此为基础,以受教育程度作为人力资本的衡量指标,检验人力资本及其结构对产业结构升级的效应。结果显示,人力资本红利显著促进了产业结构的升级;适度的人力资本不平等分布会促进经济的非农化,但阻碍了经济的服务化进程;高等教育显著促进了产业结构升级,而中等教育的影响则具有不确定性;从绝对数来讲,中等教育的效应要远大于高等教育。

By Establishing an analysis framework, we explain three mechanisms of human cap- ital influencing industrial structure upgrading： technological progress, increase in income and ur- banization. Based on it, we use education as an index of human capital, to test the effect of human capital and its structure on industrial structure upgrading. It shows that： human capital bonus can obviously promote industrial structure upgrading; moderately unequal distribution of human capital can promote non-agricultural economy, but may hinder the process of service-oriented economy; higher education promotes industrial structure upgrading significantly, while the effect of secondary education is uncertain. In absolute terms, the effect of secondary education is larger than that of higher education.