城镇化扩大内需的路径及区域效应研究

A Research on the Path of Expanding Domestic Demand of Urbanization and Regional Effect

我国城镇化扩大内需路径有二:一是消费需求的增加,二是投资需求提升。利用我国省域面板数据对城镇化扩大内需的区域效应所进行的实证研究结果显示:我国城镇化与内需的关系呈现出U型结构,决定U型结构中正向促进作用到来的外在条件是区域的经济发展水平;相对于中西部而言,东部区域城镇化扩大内需的效果更为显著,而中部和西部地区的效果是趋同的;产业结构调整已成为中西部区域城镇化扩大内需的重要契机;城乡消费观念、消费结构及消费水平的差距通过消费趋同难度的增加,负向性地影响了我国城镇化扩大内需的效果。

There are two paths of expanding domestic demand of urbanization, increase in con sumption demand and promotion of investment demand. In this paper, based on the analysis, with over-provincial panel data, we make an empirical research on the regional effect of expansion of do- mestic demand, and it shows that the relationship between urbanization and domestic demand is aU-shaped structure, the regional economic development level is the external condition to determine the promotion of U-shaped structure~ comparing to the central and western areas, the effect of ex- panding domestic demand by urbanization in eastern area is more obvious, while the effect in central and western regions is convergent~ The adjustment of industrial structure has become an important opportunity for domestic demand expanding in central and western regions; the gap of urban-rural consumption idea, consumption structure and level has a negative effect on the expansion of domes- tic demand through the increase of convergence difficulty of consumption.