人民币升值压力的演进、分析、估算和应对措施

The Evolution,Analysis,Estimation and Response Measures of RMB Appreciation Pressure

文章分析了人民币汇率升值压力演进的三个阶段,并通过中国的贸易收支、国内外利差、通货膨胀率差异情况以及市场预期这四类经济基本面因素分析了人民币汇率是否持续面临巨大的升值压力。分析表明,近期人民币汇率已经不存在大幅升值的压力,可能存在贬值的压力。本文进一步选取BEER模型和1994年Q1至2012年Q2的经济数据估算了人民币汇率失调幅度,结果发现人民币自2011年至今已经持续小幅高估,支持了基本面分析的结论。因此,中国必须认清人民币升值压力的本质,采取应对措施和坚持"自主性"的掌控人民币汇率形成机制的改革路径。

The article analyzed the three evolution stages of the RMB exchange rate appreciation pressures evolution.Then we made a study whether RMB faced huge appreciation pressure by China's trade balance,domestic and foreign interest rate differentials,inflation differentials and market anticipation.The analysis found that RMB exchange rate did not have huge appreciation pressures and even had some depreciation pressures.Further more,we estimated the misalignment of RMB by the BEER model and economic data from 1994Q1 to 2012Q2,the result showed that RMB had small overestimation after 2011,it validated the economic fundamental analysis.Therefore,China must recognize the nature of appreciate pressure,adopted response measures and adhered to the path of 'autonomy' control of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform.