气候变化对黄河流域径流变化及其可能影响研究进展

Research Advances of Impact of Climate Change on Runoff of the Yellow River Basin

阐述了黄河流域水文要素变化的事实,揭示了黄河流域径流的脆弱性;综述了黄河流域径流对气候变化的敏感性及未来气候变化对黄河流域径流的可能影响的研究现状。目前的研究表明:降水在20世纪80年代后呈弱减少趋势,径流减少明显;径流对降水的敏感程度高于对气温的敏感程度;在未来气候变化情景下,径流总体呈减少趋势,黄河流域未来水资源紧张态势将进一步加剧。依据上述研究成果,提出了黄河流域适应气候变化的对策。诸多气候变化对黄河径流影响的研究中,尚存在不足:气候变化对径流变化影响的机理尚需进一步研究,缺乏极端气候事件对径流的影响研究,气候模型和水文模型中的不确定问题有待解决。

The change facts of the hydrology elements in the Yellow river basin are summarized,which states the vulnerability of runoff in the Yellow river basin.The sensibility of runoff to climate change and potential effects of the future climate change on runoff are stated.The research results show that the precipitation after 1980s presents weak decrease trends,and runoff presents obvious decrease trends.The runoff is more sensitive to precipitation than temperature.The overall runoff will decrease in the future climate change background,and the situation of water resources lack in the Yellow river basin will be intensified in the future.Based on the above research results,the paper puts forward some countermeasures to adapt to climate change in the Yellow river basin.There still exist some problems in the research of impact of climate change on runoff of the Yellow river basin.The mechanism and the extreme climate events impact on runoff still need further study,the uncertain problems of climate and hydrology models need be solved.