灰色理论及其模型在北京典型城市区域声环境研究中的应用

Application of Grey Theory and Model on Acoustic Environment of Typical Urban Area in Beijing

以北京市某典型区域作为研究对象,在收集大量相关资料与实测历史噪声数据的基础上,对研究区域内的声环境质量影响因素进行灰色关联度分析,并运用灰色理论建立GM(1,1)模型进行预测。结果表明,影响城市区域声环境质量因素从大到小的排序依次为:机动车辆﹥常住人口数量﹥平均车流量﹥地区生产总值﹥城市道路桥梁﹥基础设施投资﹥治理噪声环保投资;以研究区域内噪声污染实测历史数据建立的GM(1,1)模型精度符合要求标准,根据GM(1,1)模型预测北京市"十二五"期间声环境质量达标且有轻微下降趋势。

In order to complete the objectives of ＂The Twelfth Five-Year Guideline＂ of the main noise pol-lution prevention and control in urban areas of Beijing, comprehensively improve the level of acoustic environmen-tal quality in Beijing,and scientifically predict of noise pollution in the regional level and development trend in the ＂ The Twelfth Five-Year Guideline＂ period,based on collected data and measured historical noise data,this article focused on a typical region in Beijing to make grey Relational Analysis for some factors affecting the quali- ty of the acoustic environment within the study area,and to predict by using the gray theory GM （ 1,1 ） model. The results showed that： the factors that of influence acoustic environmental quality were ranked as follows： mo- tor vehicles 〉 average traffic flow 〉 GDP 〉 urban roads and bridges 〉 Population density 〉 infrastructure in- vestment 〉 noise control and environmental protection investment; the accuracy of the GM （1,1） model estab- lished by the measured historical data of noise pollution within the study area meets the requirements, prediction based on the GM （ 1,1 ） model suggested the acoustic environment quality reaching the standards with declining trend during ＂ The Twelfth Five-Year Guideline ＂ of Beijing.