摘要
文章根据上海市2003年以来的房地产开发投资及GDP的季度数据,采用ADF方法检验各变量的单整性,再运用EG(Engle-Granger)两步法进行协整检验,通过误差修正模型的分析以考察变量间的动态关系,并进行Granger因果关系检验,最后得到脉冲响应函数的合成图,得出上海市房地产开发投资对本市经济增长有着明显的影响,"房地产引领经济增长的假说"在上海是成立的,建议政府在制定经济政策时应该充分考虑这一点。
By using data of real estate developing investment and GDP growth in Shanghai, dds paper employs unit root tests and coinlegration tests uf EG （Engle-Granger） two-step methad to analyze the dynamic relationship between the variables. The granger causality test shows that there is remarkable granger causality relationship between real estate developing investment and GDP growth. The finding implies that the hypothesis, ＂the real estate developing investment lead economic growth＂, do stand in Shanghai. Government shauht take fall account of it in the formulation of economic policy.
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
2013年第7期1-4,共4页
East China Economic Management
基金
2011年教育部人文社科基金青年项目(11YJC790303)
2012年国家社科基金青年项目(12CJY106)
关键词
房地产开发投资
经济增长
因果关系
脉冲响应函数
real estate developing investment
economic growth
granger causalily
impulse response function
