不完全城市化对我国消费的影响研究

The Effect of Incomplete Urbanization on Consumption

不完全的城市化使得大多数农民只能在城市得到非正规的就业,"短期"行为和"内卷化",造成了消费的不足和无法扩大消费。文章通过建立个人多期消费模型,从理论上分析了不完全城市化是如何影响消费的,并建立状态空间数据模型,实证检验了我国不完全城市化对消费的影响。结果表明,不完全城市化导致了长期的消费不足,并且依据个人自身情况的不同,不完全城市化对其消费的形象也不同。充分认识和了解不完全城市化对消费需求的影响,有助于解决我国内需不足的现状,从而转变现有投资和出口的经济增长战略,实现以内需拉动中国的经济增长。解决这些问题不但需要制度的创新,其核心是户籍制度和就业制度,而且还需要紧跟合理的规划和政策性支持。

Incomplete urbanization entails farmers only to be employed informally in cites, and the problems of ＂short-ternl＂ and ＂involution＂, which resuh in a lack of consumption and the inability to expand consumption. Through the establishment of personal consumption model, this paper analyses theoretically how incomplete urbanization affects the consumption. And through the establishment of a panel data model, this paper examines the impact of incomplete urbanization consumplinn in China. The results shrew that incomplete urbanizalion contributes to inadequate consumption in the long term and its impact varies according to indivich,al differences. Insight into the impact of urbanization on consumption will help address the lack of domestic demand and change the existing economic growth strategy of investment and export, to achieve the economic growth stratcgy that China＇s economic will be pulled by domestic demand. To solve these problems requires not only the innovation of the system, the core of which is the household registration system and employment system and the need of proper plan- ning and policy support.