珠三角地区县域经济增长收敛的空间计量分析

A Spatial Analysis of Regional Economic Convergence at City Level in the Pearl River Delta

文章运用空间计量分析方法,以珠三角1997-2011年24个县市级人均GDP为样本,对区域经济增长的空间相关性和收敛性进行实证研究。结果表明:1997-2011年,珠三角24个县域经济增长具有显著的空间正相关,在地理空间上存在集聚现象。与传统空间计量模型对比,文章选用能消除区域经济增长的空间依赖性的空间误差模型,研究发现:各县市间存在β-收敛,珠三角地区经济增长不仅受到自身初始水平的影响,还会对周围地区的经济增长具有扩散作用。因此,在制定区域政策时,应充分考虑经济发展的空间依赖性和溢出效应。

With the per capita GDP growth between 24 cities and counties in the Pearl River Delta from 1997 to 2011, the paper rises spatial econometric analysis method to test the spatial correlation and convergenee of regional economic growth. The results show thai the economic growth of the 24 cities and connties has a significant spatial positive correlation and geospatial agglomeration in the Pearl River Delta. Compared with the traditional spatial econometric＇ model, this paper selected the spatial error model, which can eliminate the spatial dependence of regional economic growth, to reach the founding： the β-cnnvergence existed among the cities and counties, and the Pearl River Deha economic growth is not only influenced by the initial levels, but also conducted diffusing effect to the economic growth of the surrounding ,egions. Therefore, Ihe developmenl of regional policy should take full account of the spatial dependence and spillover effects of the economic development.