新疆城镇化与绿洲农业产业化协调发展关系的实证研究——基于VAR模型的计量分析

The Research on Relationship between Urbanization And Agribusiness in Xinjiang——Quantitative Analysis Based on the VAR model

文章运用VAR模型、因果检验和回归分析方法,分析了新疆城镇化与绿洲农业产业化的互动关系。实证结果表明:新疆1996-2011年城镇化对绿洲农业产业化具有明显的正向带动作用,绿洲农业产业化对城镇化也具有正效应。长期而言,绿洲农业产业化与城镇化之间存在着稳定的均衡关系。鉴于此,提出相关政策建议:在政府的调控下,发挥绿洲农业产业化和城镇化聚集人口、聚集产业、聚集人才、聚集资金、聚集信息、聚集服务的功能,推动农村经济社会深刻变革。

This paper analyzes the relationship between urbanization and agribusiness in Xinjiang based on tile VAR model, in the methods of lhe grange eausalily lest and regression analysis. The resuhs indicale that urbanization has a vigorous effect on agribusiness from 1996-2011 in Xinjiang, and Ihe agribusiness has a posilive function to urbanization as well. There is a balance between urbanization and agribusiness in the long run. Therefore, in order to promole the profound change of rural economic society, the government should set some policies to give play to urbanization and agriibusiness in the functions including collecting people, fund, information, service and so on