粮食主产区“北旱南涝”相关性分析与农业风险管理模式优化

Northern Drought and Southern Flood Correlation Test in Major Crop Producing Areas and Optimization of Agricultural Risks Management Modes

为从定量视角分析我国粮食主产区"北旱"与"南涝"之间是否存在相关性,本文收集1978年～2010年粮食主产省份水灾与旱灾成灾率数据,采用典型相关分析计算四个主要粮食产区之间水旱灾害相关系数。研究发现:东北、华北粮食主产区旱灾风险与长江中下游粮食主产区及江淮粮食主产区水灾风险间具有较高相关性,易造成农业保险赔付的系统性风险;据此,从补贴、税收和防洪抗旱区域协调等视角提出农业水旱灾害风险管理的优化对策。

In order to conduct a correlation testing on the northern drought and southern flood in major crop producing areas,the paper collected data relevant to flood and drought damage ratio in 12 major crop producing provinces from 1978-2010. Then it calculated their canonical correlation coefficient. The findings were that in the 4 major crop producing areas, the drought in northeastern and northern China was highly correlative with the flood in Yangtze River area and Huai River area. This correlation of agricultural risks might result in systemic claim risks for insurance companies. Therefore, the paper proposed some optimized countermeasures such as fiscal subsidy, preferable tax policy and regional cooperation for effectively managing agricultural drought and flood risks.