我国寿险保单退保影响因素的实证研究——基于公司层面的微观数据

An Empirical Analysis on Factors Impacting Life Insurance Surrender —Based on Micro Data from Insurance Companies

从微观的角度,利用中国寿险市场的统计数据考察了寿险公司经营信息对保单持有人退保行为的影响,考虑到不同类型公司受影响程度的差异性,将样本数据分成大型寿险公司和中小寿险公司两类,并建立非线性平滑转换面板数据模型来研究不同类型的寿险公司退保率受各因素影响的差异。实证分析的结果表明:是否销售投连险显著地影响中小寿险公司的退保率,对大型寿险公司则无影响;与寿险公司规模高增长相伴随的是保单的高退保,这在中国寿险行业普遍存在;保单分红水平对于退保的影响程度要低于预期,"利率替代"效应并不是导致退保的最主要原因;保单持有人会比较信赖历史悠久的公司,而保费水平的高低并不是影响保单持有人是否退保的重要因素。

Based on relevant market statistics in China, the article took a micro perspective to study the impacts of life insurance company＇ s operation performance on policy surrenders. Taking into account the differentiated impacts on companies of different size, samples were divided into two types：large life insurance companies and small and medium-sized life insurance companies. Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model was used to take a closer look at the effects of different factors on different companies＇ surrender rates. The results were as follows ： whether selling unit-linked life insurance products or not significantly influenced the surrender rate of small companies, but had no impacts on large companies;it was common that high growth coupled with high surrenders for all life companies;policy dividend level had smaller effects on surrender rate than expected;＂ interest rate substitution＂ effect was not the main reason for surrenders;policyholder tended to have more faith in long-standing companies;and premium size was not the critical factor for policyholder to surrender their policies.