中国作物低温冷害监测与模拟预报研究进展

Monitoring and simulation forecasting on crop chilling damage in China:Research progress

低温冷害是影响中国粮食生产的重要灾害之一,气候变化使中国特别是东北地区的低温冷害时有发生,东北中部冷害每8年发生一次,开展作物低温冷害研究对于中国粮食安全具有重要意义。从冷害形成机理上可以分为延迟型冷害、障碍型冷害及混合型冷害3类,其冷害指标主要针对不同作物有所差别。基于站点的冷害监测小尺度,GIS等新技术提供的精确温度指标可进行区域监测。遥感技术通过监测下垫面温度(LST)和植被指数(如NDVI)可监测障碍型冷害。基于数理统计、气候模式和作物模型耦合、天气预报的发育期和产量预报的低温冷害预报方法已得到应用。作物模型可依据作物发育进程和产量损失等对冷害损失评估,同时与遥感信息等结合可进行区域灾害评估。最后讨论了中国低温冷害监测和预报新技术的发展方向。

Chilling damage is one of the important disasters impacting grain production in China. Climate change makes chilling damage often occurred in China, especially Northeast China. In the central part of Northeast China, chilling damage occurs once every 8 years. To study the chilling damage is of significance to Chinese food security. According to the formation mechanisms of chilling injury, chilling damage can be divided into delayedtype, obstacletype, and mixed-type, and their chilling indices differed with crop type. Based on the small spatial scale of sitebased monitoring, the precise temperature indicators provided by the new technologies such as geographical information system （GIS） can be used for regional crop chilling damage monitoring. Remote sensing technology can estimate the obstacle chilling damage via monitoring land surface temperature （LST） and vegetation index （e.g., NDVI）. The prediction methods of crop chilling damage, such as the coupling of mathematical statistics with climate model and crop model and the crop development states and yield forecast based on weather forecast, have been applied in meteorological operation and service system. Crop model can be used for assessing chilling damage loss according to crop development process and yield loss, and applied to make regional damage assessment through combing with remote sensing information. The further development directions of chilling damage monitoring and forecasting technologies as well as the better services for crop chilling damage prevention and mitigation are also discussed in this paper.