国际关系研究中形式模型的用途与误用

Use and Misuse of Formal Model

形式方法是国际关系研究领域的重要研究工具,尽管其应用并不广泛,但日益显示出扩大的趋势。与此同时,形式方法也面临着各种批评,尤其是来自使用者群体之外的批评。批评者指出模型预测与现实情况相去甚远,而且形式理论更多是在用繁杂的工具完成无足轻重的工作。实际上,形式模型能够推动国际关系理论的建立,但所建立的理论是"远离现实的",理论建立之后还必须进行真实化还原才能够对现实世界做出预测。因此,模型替代和真实化还原构成了形式方法的两个重要步骤。在使用形式方法的过程中,只有加强了这两个方面,尤其是目前不被重视的还原步骤,才有可能避免各式各样的误用。

Formal method is an important research tool in the field of international relations study,and its use is not widespread,but shows a sign of expansion.At the same time,formal methods are facing various kinds of criticism.Critics point out that the model prediction is wide apart from the reality,and it only fulfills unimportant task with complicated tools.In fact,formal model can promote the establishment of theory of international relations,but the theory is 'far away from the reality',which can predict the real world after realistic transformation.Therefore,model simplification and realistic transformation are two key steps of formal methods.In the process of the use of formal method,these two aspects must be strengthened simultaneously,which can avoid various kinds of misuse.