基于二元决策图的建筑施工安全风险评估

Safety risk assessment for construction project with BDD-based method

研究建筑施工安全风险的定量分析,提出基于BDD(binary decision diagram,二元决策图)的建筑施工安全风险评估方法,为制定安全风险控制措施提供科学依据.该方法首先将建筑施工安全风险的故障树转化为BDD结构,然后沿BDD结构从上到下访问各结点来计算风险事故率和基本事件重要度.依据计算得到的数据,安全管理人员可预测建筑施工中风险事故的发生概率、确定引发事故的关键因素.此外,实现了计算风险事故率和基本事件重要度的算法,并结合建筑施工中主要风险事故类型给出了施工安全综合风险的分析思路.基于BDD的方法充分利用了空间优势和易于计算机编程实现的特点,相比传统的故障树方法具有更高的效率.实验数据的对比分析表明:该方法的分析结果与故障树定性分析结果吻合,而且能快速得到建筑施工安全的风险事故率和影响安全的关键因素.

To scientifically deal with safety risk, the quantitative analysis methods for construction project safety are considered, and an assessment method based on BDD （binary decision diagram） is presented. This method follows these steps： firstly, the fault tree of safety risk is transferred into a BDD; secondly, along the up-to-down structure of BDD, all the nodes are traversed, and the risk accident probability and basic event importance are computed; lastly, with these result values, the safety manager can predict the risk accident probability and find out the key incurrence. Furthermore, the algorithms are developed for risk accident probability and basic event importance, and the synthesis risk analysis with main risk accidents is discussed. With the space advantage and computer-programmable convenience, the BDD-based method is more efficient than traditional fault tree method. Experimental results show that quantitative analysis conclusions based on BDD are consistent with qualitative analysis of the fault tree, and quickly provide the risk accident probability and key factor of construction project safety.