汇率变动、不完全传递与人民币升值对贸易顺差的影响

Effect on Trade Surplus of Exchange Rate Changes,Incomplete Pass-through and Rmb’s Exchange Rate Appreciation

基于汇率变动的不完全传递效应,实证分析了人民币汇率升值的贸易顺差调整效果,并基于实证研究结论对不完全汇率传递影响顺差调整的机理进行了论证分析。实证研究表明,人民币汇率变动对出口价格的传递程度比较低,虽然出口的价格弹性比较高,但是较低程度的汇率传递确实弱化了人民币升值的贸易顺差调整效应。

This paper analyzes the adjustment effects of RMB＇ s exchange rate appreciation on trade surplus based on the incomplete exchange rate pass - through, the result shows that the degree of pass - through of change of exchange rate on export price is very limited, and although the price elasticity of export is not very low, the lower pass - through degree surely weakened the surplus adjustment effect of RMB＇ s appreciation.