基于生态足迹改进模型的生态安全及其预测研究

Ecological Security and Its Prediction Based on Improved Ecological Footprint Model

由William Rees提出的生态足迹模型已经成为近年来生态可持续发展的重要的度量工具,但是该模型仅考虑了土地的基本生产功能,忽视了土地生态系统的服务功能。文章借鉴生态系统服务功能理论改进了传统的生态足迹模型,将生态系统服务功能价值当量因子引入生态足迹模型均衡因子和产量因子的计算中,改进后的模型体现了生态系统功能的完整性;同时,文章以江苏省2010年的统计数据为基础,应用改进模型计算了其2010年生态压力指数,结果表明,江苏省生态压力指数达到1.495,其安全状况已经超过了极不安全边界,处于极不安全状态;最后利用灰色理论GM(1,1)模型对其2011-2015年的生态安全状况进行了预测,发现江苏省未来5年生态压力指数快速增大,年平均增长速度为6.89%,表明江苏省未来5年生态安全状况将继续恶化,这将严重影响其生态可持续发展和经济可持续发展。

Ecological footprint model proposed by William Rees is becoming an important tool to study sustainable development of ecological environment in recent years, but the model only considers the basic function of land and neglects the service function of land ecosystem. Ecosystem service function theory was referred to improve traditional ecological footprint model, including the value equivalent factor of ecosystem service function in the calculation of equilibrium factor and yield factor in the model, which would embody the integrity of the ecosystem. The improved model was used to calculate the ecological stress index of Jiangsu Province in 2010 based on its statistic data, results showed the ecological pressure index of the Province was 1.495, which indicated it has reached the extremely insecurity boundary. GM （ 1,1 ） model was used to predict ecological security situation in 2011-2015, and results showed that ecological pressure index of Jiangsu increased fast in the next five years, with average annual growth rate of 6.89%, indicating the ecological security of Jiangsu would be worse in future, and would seriously hinder the sustainable develooment of its ecology and economy.