中国国际收支顺差趋缓的地区金融机构存贷比效应——理论分析与经验证据

Effect of Decrease in China’s Balance of Payment Surplus on Regional Deposit -Loan Ratios:Theoretical Analyses and Evidences Based on Chinese Provincial-Level Panel Data

在当前国际收支顺差局面明显趋缓以及金融机构存贷比成为业界关注热点的背景下,研究国际收支顺差对中国地区金融机构存贷比的影响问题,结果表明国际收支顺差显著地降低了地区金融机构存贷比;相比较而言,在少数外向型经济发达的高顺差地区,国际收支顺差降低金融机构存贷比的力度要更大一些,意味着中国目前及未来国际收支顺差的减少,将会导致地区金融机构存贷比出现普遍上升现象,这在少数外向型经济发达地区将更为明显。

Under the background of Chinese balance of payment being improved and fi- nancial intermediary deposit-loan ratios having become a hot topic, the paper studies the effect of balance of payment surplus on the deposit -loan ratios of regional financial interme- diary. Based on Chinese provincial -level panel data from 2006 to 2011, we find that bal- ance of payment surplus makes significantly negative contribution to the regional financial intermediary deposit -loan ratios. Also, the result shows the negative contribution is stronger in the high-surplus region than it is in the low-surplus one. The conclusion indicates the regional financial intermediary deposit-loan ratios will generally rise when the balance of payment surplus is on the decrease in the future.