中国银行业一级资本变动对贷款变动的非同质效应

The Heterogeneous Effects of Tier 1 Capital on Loan in Chinese Banks

银行的一级资本规模是衡量资本质量的核心指标,其重要性在金融危机后更得到了空前重视。一级资本变动对贷款变动具有重要影响,然而这一效应却由于银行的业务结构差别而不尽相同。本文在论证贷款规模显著受到一级资本变动影响的基础上,采用中国100家商业银行2007-2011年度的数据作为样本,利用短面板回归分析法进行实证检验。结果表明,一方面,非利息收入占比不同的银行对一级资本相关指标的变动具有不同的敏感性,对非利息收入占比最高和最低的两组极端情况的银行来说,同一指标在显著性上的差异尤为明显;另一方面,从实证结果看,GDP指标作为解释变量对非利息收入占比最高的银行组在统计上较显著,而对中国银行业整体的贷款变动的解释变量在统计上并不显著。这对我国监管当局制定监管政策具有重要意义。

The changes of Tier-1 capital have significant influence on the size of loans for banks, while this kind of effect varies with different banking business structures. This paper takes the data from 2007-2011 of China＇s 100 commercial banks as sample and uses Stata as econometrics method to make empirical test. The results show that a bank＇s non-interest income ratio accounts for the different sensitivities of loans to the change of capital sizes, what＇s more, the two groups with highest and the lowest NIIR have remarkable differences of that kind of sensitivity. In addition, the empirical results also show that when GDP index are used as an explanatory variable, it is only statistically significant for the highest NIIR group, while it is not the same with the whole sample and the lowest NIIR group, which have the most important significance for the supervision authorities to formulate regulatory policy.