摘要
中国1990～2011年劳动力供给保障水平的变化趋势表明,劳动力供给水平下降与劳动力需求水平上升在2003年交汇在一起,从而造成了中国的"民工荒"问题。通过建立影响中国劳动力供给保障水平的宏观经济因素的多元回归模型,证实消费水平和出口水平的提高以及经济增长速度的提高能够显著降低劳动力供给保障水平。从投资拉动型的经济增长转向依靠技术进步实现经济发展是解决"民工荒"问题的根本途径。
The change trend of labor supply security level in China from 1990 to 2011 indicated the decrease of labor supply level and the rise of labor demand level met together in 2003, resulting in ＂shortage of migrant workers＂ in China. Through the establishment of a muhivariable linear regression model of the maeroeconomie factors that affected labor supply security level of China, the analysis results of model confirmed the increase of consumption level and export level and the improvement of economic growth rate could reduce labor supply security level significantly. The shifting from investment - led economic growth to economic development relying on technological progress was the fundamental way to solve the problem of the ＂shortage of migrant workers＂.
出处
《经济与管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第7期58-66,共9页
Research on Economics and Management
基金
中国博士后科学基金项目“劳动力流动生命周期、农民工低龄化与城乡收入差距研究”(2012M520497)
中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目“劳动力转移、农业经营组织创新与城乡收入差距收敛研究”(2013T60212)
关键词
刘易斯拐点
劳动力供给保障水平
民工荒
多元回归模型
Lewisian Turning Point
Labor Supply Security Level
Shortage of Migrant Workers
Multivariable Linear Regression Model
