基于Markov区制转移模型的财政政策通胀效应检验

The Test of Inflationary Effect of the Fiscal Policy Based on the Markov Regime Switching Model

价格水平如何决定以及通货膨胀如何治理历来都是经济学家和政府决策部门关心的问题,新近提出的价格水平决定的财政理论强调财政政策变动对价格水平的影响。基于该理论,选取1998-2012年间国债发行和价格水平的季度数据,采取马尔科夫区制转移模型从一个侧面对我国财政政策的通货膨胀效应进行了实证检验,研究发现,积极财政政策对价格水平的影响并不一致,2008年第4季度之前的大部分时间里,积极财政政策所引致的通胀风险并不显著,但2008年之后,积极财政政策则具有显著通胀效应。因此,在治理通货膨胀的政策选择上,改善当前的财政状况,合理地运用财政政策可能是一个更好的选择。

What decides the overafl price level, as well as how to control the inflation has always been the concem of economists and the government departments of decision-making. The fiscal theory of the price level recently raised emphasizes the impact of changes in fiscal policy on the price level Based on the theory, this paper chooses quarterly data of government debt and price level in 1998-2012, and makes an empirical test of the inflationary effect of the fiscal policy in China from one side by using Markov regime switching model Our study found that the effect of proactive fiscal policy on the price level is not consistent Most of the time before the fourth quar- ter of 2008, the inflation risk arising from the proactive fiscal policy is insignificant; but after 1998, the proactive fiscal policy has a significant inflationary effect on the price level Therefore, improvement of current fiscal position and rational use of fiscal policy may be a better choice when adopting policies to deal with inflation.