欠发达地区农民消费与持久收入假说——以重庆为例

Permanent Income Hypothesis and the Consumption of the Rural Residents in Underdeveloped Areas——Case in Chongqing

论文采用了弗里德曼和苏良军的分解方法得到持久收入、暂时收入,并运用分位数回归(quantile regression,QR)方法验证持久收入假说,结果表明持久收入假说失灵。进一步实证分析发现,超过60%的重庆农村居民按照当期收入消费,重庆农村居民的消费对当期收入表现出相当程度的过度敏感性,这是持久收入假说失灵的原因。研究还发现未来收入的不确定性对重庆农村居民消费具有显著性影响,而流动性约束却没有显著性影响。

This paper used Friedman＇s and Su Liangjun ＂s decomposition methods to attain the permanent income and temporary income, and adopted quantile regression to validate perma- nent income hypothesis. The results don＇t support the permanent income hypothesis. Further em- pirical analysis manifests that more than 60 % of the rural residents in Chongqing consume ac- cording to current income and ff means that the consumption of the rural residents in Chongqing entails considerable degree of excessive sensitivity to current income, which leads to the failure of permanent income hypothesis. Uncertainty of spending has an significant impact on the con- sumption of the rural residents in Chongqing.