环境变化对白洋淀流域径流的影响研究

Study of Influence of Environmental Change on the Baiyangdian Basin

气候和土地利用／覆被变化是地球环境变化的重要组成部分，环境变化将会引起水文循环过程的改变。以白洋淀流域为研究区域，利用SWAT模型模拟气候和土地利用／覆被变化对流域径流的影响。模型经典型流域实测资料的校准和验证，在白洋淀流域内具有较好的适用性。在不同气候和土地利用／覆被变化情景下，对流域径流量进行模拟分析。结果显示：流域年径流量随降水量的减少和气温的升高而减少，降水对径流的影响大于气温的影响；随着流域土地覆被的增加，年径流量减小，且对汛期径流影响更大。

Climatic change and land use / cover change is an important part of the earth＇s environmental change. The environmental change will cause the changes in the hydrological cycle. With the Baiyangdian basin as the study area, this paper simulates the influence of climatic change and land use / cover change on watershed runoff by SWAT model. Through the calibration and validation by measured data in the typical water- shed, the model has good applicability in the Baiyangdian basin. This paper has made simulation analysis on the Baiyangdian basinrs runoff in dif- ferent scenario of climatic change and land use/cover change. The results showed that the annual runoff in the Baiyangdian basin decreased along with the reduction of precipitation and the rise of temperature. The influence of precipitation on runoff is greater than the influence of tempera- ture on runoff; the annual runoff decreased along with the increase of land cover in the Baiyangdian basin, which has the greater influence on flood season runoff.