汉江中下游水资源风险分析与对策研究

Water Supply Risk in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Hanjiang River and Its Countermeasures

跨流域调水具有巨大的经济、社会和生态环境效益,但是调水减少了水源区的水资源量,可能会增加其供水风险。对南水北调中线工程水源影响区——汉江中下游进行水资源供需风险分析:进行了风险识别,计算了供水风险的各项指标;以风险度定义危险概率等级,易损性定义缺水严重程度等级,通过不同的等级组合建立缺水风险分级标准,对汉江中下游供水风险进行风险分级。结合敏感性分析结果,针对各影响因素采取相应的对策措施,特别是编制枯水期应急预案等对策措施,以降低跨流域调水对其水源影响区供水风险的影响。

In this paper,the water supply risk in the area influenced by water transfer project was researched.Taking the middle route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project as an example,we investigate the water supplyrisk in the source region of the project,which is known as the main stream area of middle and lower Hanjiang River.Firstly,we calculated the indicators of water supply risk.With reliability to define the risk probability level and vulnerability to define the water shortage severity level,we proposed a water shortage classification standard and hence classified the risk of water shortage.Furthermore,we calculated the risk sensitivity with water inflow,water demand,and water transfer as three main influencing factors.On the basis of this,we proposed some countermeasures to reduce the risks caused by the influencing factors,in particular,the countermeasures of emergency in dry season.