限制条件下内河航道船舶大型化预测研究

The prediction method study on larger-scale trend of ships of inland waterways under restrictive conditions

内河船型发展需要与航道条件、通航建筑物等级和港口装卸条件等相匹配,其大型化程度必然受到一定限制.支持向量机在数据分类上已取得巨大成功,尝试基于支持向量机算法,加入限制条件对船舶平均吨位进行预测,并可根据实际状况选取不同限制条件进行宏观预测.研究结果表明:考虑限制条件能较好地预测船舶平均吨位的发展,且数据样本不少于13年时与实际数据吻合良好.

The development of types of inland ship needs to be matched with the conditions of waterways,grades of navigation structures and technology of harbor handling,etc.Thus the larger-scale trend must be constrained to a certain extent.SVM method has achieved great success in data classification,which is used to predict the average tonnage of ships with different restrictions based on actual situation.The research shows that the prediction of average tonnage of inland ships would be more reasonable under restrictions and the predicted value would be in good agreement with the actual data based on the data sample not less than 13 years.