金融服务业“优胜劣汰”还是“劣胜优汰”?——以开放式基金为例

The Financial Services Industry,“the Survival of the Fittest”or “Inferior Jig”?——To Open-end Fund as An Example

本文以开放式基金为例,以开放式基金业绩与投资者的申购、赎回决策关系为切入点,研究金融服务业是否存在健康的"优胜劣汰"机制,投资者的申购、赎回以及其差额会影响基金未来的运作乃至基金能否在激烈竞争中生存下来。不同于以往文献多研究单一类型基金,本文选取股票型、债券型、平衡型三种类型的开放式基金为样本,首先对基金研究的重要假设——业绩持续性进行检验,而后对开放式基金业绩与投资者行为选择进行实证研究,并以股票型开放式基金为例,考察一个完整的牛市、熊市、震荡调整的周期,研究基金投资者在不同市场阶段对基金业绩的反应。研究发现:股票型开放式基金投资者的申购、赎回与上期业绩正相关,申购与当期业绩负相关,赎回与当期业绩正相关;债券型开放式基金申购和赎回都与当期业绩正相关,但是净赎回与当期业绩负相关;平衡型开放式基金的业绩与申购、赎回的关系与股票型开放式基金类似。股票型开放式基金在牛市阶段未表现出"优胜劣汰",在熊市阶段,净赎回与基金业绩负相关;震荡调整阶段投资者对基金规模、分红等因素关注度小,只关心基金业绩。

In order to study whether the financial services industry has the healthy “survival of the fittest” mechanism, this paper takes the open-end fund as an example, use the relationship between the fund performance and investor＇s purchase and redemption decision as the breakthrough point, because investors purchase, redemption and the difference will affect the fund future operations and even whether the fund can survive in the fierce competition. Different from the previous literature study on a single type of fund, this paper studied the relationship between fund performances and the behavior of investors from three types of samples, equity, bond and hybrid funds respectively. Firstly, tested the important assumptions of fund re- search performance persistence test. Then, studied the open-end fund performance and investor behavior choice for empir- ical research. Moreover, from the view of a complete bull market, bear market, the shock adjustment cycle, research fund investors＇ reaction to the fund＇s performance in the different stages of the market for instance of equity fund. We found ： it has a positive correlation between the equity fund investors＇ purchase, redemption and the funds＇ previous performance, a negative correlation between purchase and funds＇ current performance, a positive correlation between redemption and the funds＇ current performance. Bond funds＇ performance have positive impact on the purchase and redemption, but net redemption and the per- formance are negatively correlated. Relationship between the performance of funds and purchase, redemption of the hybrid fund is similar to equity funds. Equity funds in the bull market phase showed no “survival of the fittest”, in the phase of the bear market, fund performance has a significant negative impact on net redemption, in the shock of adjustment stage, investors only care about the performance of the fund, do not care about the fund scale, dividends etc.