环境特性电网负荷组合预测

Load Combination Forecasting Based on Power Grid with Environmental Characteristics

本文在分析煤矿井下电力负荷特性的基础上选取适用的单项预测模型，然后根据综合预测有效度和模型冗余校验对单项预测模型进行筛选。提出一种基于改进IOWHA算子的组合预测方法对井下电力负荷进行预测，即应用Dempster合成法则筛选精度较优的单项模型预测值替代历史数据，克服实际预测期数据未知的缺陷；在预测过程中引入等维信息概念，使预测结果能够更合理地反映负荷发展规律。预测结果表明，本文提出的预测方法适用于预测井下电力负荷，并能有效提高预测精度。

In this paper, the appropriate individual forecasting models are selected based on the characteristics of underground power load. Then, these individual forecasting models is filtered by comprehensive validity and model redundancy verification. And a combination forecasting method based on IOWHA operator is proposed. In this method, forecasting values of individual model with higher accuracy are substituted for historical data by Dempster synthesize rule. The defect that data are unknown during actual forecasting period is overcome. The concept of equal dimension information is introduced in this model. The forecasting results can reflect the development law of load by this concept reasonably. Verified by an example, combination forecasting model in this paper is suitable for forecasting underground power load in coal mine. And the forecasting accuracy can be improved effectively.