人口结构、资本流动与全球经济失衡

Demographic Structure,International Capital Flows and Global Economic Imbalances

本文将资本流动和全球经济失衡纳入同一研究框架,将人口结构提升为影响长期资本流动和全球经济失衡的最重要的因素之一进行探讨,采用面板协整检验、系统广义矩估计模型、混合最小二乘模型、固定效应模型、似无相关模型等实证方法,对一个基于全球126个国家形成的面板数据进行分析和研究。本文发现,老年抚养比和少年抚养比对于经常账户有显著负向影响,实证结果支持了人口结构是长期资本流动和全球经济失衡的重要影响因素这一理论。

We take capital flows and global imbalances into one same study framework,put the population structure into the most important position as one of the most important factors which influence the long-term capital flows and the global economic imbalances to explore.This paper emploies panel cointegration test,system generalized method of moments,pooled ordinary least square,fixed effects and seeming unrelated regression,to analyze the global panel data for more than 126 countries or regions all over the world in order to find the evidence that population structure influences the capital flows and global imbalances.We find that the elderly dependency ratio and juvenile dependency ratio have a significant negative impact on the current account.The empirical results support the theory that population is one of the most important influence factors for long-term capital flows and global imbalances.