人民币汇率与中国双边对外贸易:基于“S曲线”假说的检验被引量：4

Is the S-curve Hypothesis Available for China and Its Trade Partner?

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摘要汇率与国际收支的短期动态关系一直是理论和经验研究争论的热点问题。本文从"S曲线"假说的经验性规律出发,分别从贸易总量和双边贸易的角度研究了人民币汇率短期波动与中国国际收支之间的关系。结论表明,在总量层面上,"S曲线"假说并不适用于中国,但是中国与主要贸易伙伴国的双边贸易额和双边实际有效汇率较好地支持了"S曲线"假说。另外,统计推导和经验研究都表明,"S曲线"假说对于贸易伙伴在中国贸易总额中的份额、贸易收支波动性和双边汇率波动性均具有较强的敏感性。 The dynamics between exchange rate and trade balance remains theoretically and empirically an open question.Based on the emerging'S-curve'hypothesis,this paper investigates respectively the response of the trade balance to exchange rate of RMB from the points of aggregated data and disaggregated data for China.The conclusion suggests that S-curve hypothesis does not work under the circumstance of China.But if we use bilateral trade flow and bilateral exchange rate between China and its main trade partners,S-curve is really true statistically.Moreover,S-curve is highly sensitive to the trade share,fluctuation of trade balance and bilateral exchange rate of trade partner empirically.

作者鲁晓东张晋

机构地区中山大学岭南学院广东机电职业技术学院

出处《世界经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2013年第7期26-32,87-88,共7页 World Economy Studies

基金国家自然科学基金青年项目"技术升级与中国出口竞争力变迁"(批准号:71003107) 广东省哲学社会科学"十一五"规划青年项目(批准号:09E-10) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金的资助

关键词人民币汇率国际收支 S曲线交叉相关系数

分类号 F832.6 [经济管理—金融学] F752 [经济管理—国际贸易] F224 [经济管理—国民经济]

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参考文献13

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