东亚国家或地区汇率制度的选择与演变

Choice and Evolution of the Exchange Rate System of East Asian Countries

通过分析东亚国家在东亚金融危机前、中、后不同阶段汇率制度选择的变化,发现东亚国家或地区汇率制度以"钉住美元"为主线,基本符合东亚经济特征。汇率波动存在传染效应,汇率制度缺乏合作且存在一定程度的浮动恐慌。东亚汇率制度演变的基本结论是:东亚各国或地区能否抵抗货币攻击,与采取的汇率制度密切相关。东亚各国或地区的汇率制度需要根据内外经济形势变化进行相应调整,单一钉住美元的汇率制度变得困难且不合时宜。

Through the analysis of East Asian countries＇ exchange rate regime changes before, during, and after the East Asian financial crisis, discovered that the East Asian countries take ＂pegged to the dollar＂ as the main line which is in line with the basic characteristics of their economies. There is contagion effect of exchange rate fluctuations and lack of exchange rate system cooperation. There is a certain degree of floating panic as the choice of the exchange rate system is concerned. Therefore, whether the East Asian countries can resist currency attacks are closely related to the exchange rate system they choose. Exchange rate system in East Asia need to be adjusted according to changes in the economic situation at home and abroad, a pegged exchange rate regime becomes difficult and untimely.