山西经济周期性波动的特点及成因分析

Periodical Business Fluctuation in Shanxi Province and Its Reasons

用直接法和趋势分解法分析改革开放以来山西经济波动周期及其与全国经济周期的相关性,分析山西经济周期性波动原因,既有经济周期性运动的规律性调整,又有国际环境的影响。认识山西经济运行规律,对制定山西经济社会中长期发展战略有着重要的指导意义。

There have been four business cycles in Shanxi province since reforming and opening. With the improvement of marketization and the increase of government＇ s macro - control capacity, the duration in volatility of the business cycle has been greatly prolonged, and the probability of interruption in growth with exogenous shocks has been obviously lowered. We explore the reasons for the business fluctuation from three different points, and put forward some recommendations of policy.