情报研究有效性的影响因素分析

Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Validity of Intelligence Research

借鉴循证医学有关理论,对情报研究有效性进行概念界定,将其分为内在有效性和外在有效性、过程有效性和结论有效性。从信息、方法和认知3个方面探索影响情报研究有效性的因素,具体内容包括:从质和量两方面分析信息不充分现象;从方法本身及应用条件两方面分析方法局限性因素;在定义认知偏倚概念、举出有关实例的基础上分析其背后的原理和机制。

By reference to the related theories of evidence-based medicine, this article defines the concept of Validity of Intel- ligence Research （VIR）, and divides VIR into internal and external validity, and process and conclusion validity. The article ex- plores the factors affecting VIR from the perspective of information, methodology and cognition. Its concrete content includes ： ana- lyzing the phenomenon of insufficient information from the perspective of quality and quantity; analyzing the limitation factors of methodology from the methodology itself and the application conditions ; and analyzing the principles and mechanism of cognitive bias on the basis of defining its concept and giving some relevant examples. s