增加我国石油产量、进口量能有效平抑我国油价吗?

Can Increase in Oil Output and Import Volume Effectively Stabilize China’s Oil Price?

本文通过实证研究揭示国际油价和国内油价之间的协整关系及我国石油产量、进口量和出口量对石油价格的影响。结果显示:不管增加石油产量还是增加进口量,对于平抑石油价格的影响都将有限,因为我国目前粗放型经济对石油消费需求的过快增长,相对我国石油产量和进口量增加远跟不上需求增速,导致价格不断上涨。随着我国经济结构转型和人口红利消失、有效劳动人口减少,总体经济增速下降,必然导致我国对外资源依存度趋于平缓甚至下降,在现在这个转折时期,一味单纯地渲染能源饥渴甚至能源供应危机是危险的。目前不惜代价、大手笔地收购海外资源是不明智也是严重滞后的举措。

This paper shows how Chinese oil output, import and export influence oil price and reveals the cointegration relationship between international oil price and domestic oil price through empirical approach. Empirical results show whether to increase oil outputs or imports has limited effect on stability of the oil price, because the extensive economy in China has an extremely high growth rate on oil consumption demand, and the increment of Chinese oil output and import volume cannot keep up with the demand growth, so that the oil price keeps rising. Along with China＇ s economic restructuring, disappears of population bonus and decline of population of the effective labor force, the growth rate of domestic economy decreases. All the factors inevitably lead to China＇s dependence of foreign resource to become much more steady or even decline. At this turning point, it is dangerous to simply claim energy-hungry or energy supply crisis. It is also an unwise and grave lag measure to purchase amounts of overseas resources at any cost recently.