中国能源消费结构、经济发展水平与碳排放强度

Energy Consumption Structure,the Level of Economic Development and Carbon Discharge Intensity in China

构建二氧化碳排放强度与人均GDP的EKC曲线,并在此模型中加入能源消费结构的变量,来探讨中国能源消费结构、经济发展水平与碳排放强度之间的关系。结果表明:碳强度随着人均实际GDP的改变呈现出倒"N"型的特征,即碳排放强度随着人均实际GDP的提高有一个先下降,再保持一定的水平略有上升,然后再下降的趋势;能源消费结构影响碳排放强度,煤炭消费占能源消费比重与碳排放强度呈正相关关系,即煤炭消费比重越大,碳排放强度越大;对经济发展与碳排放之间关系进行情景分析表明,我国减排的目标和压力依然很大,为了保证我国承诺的2020年二氧化碳排放强度在2005年的基础上下降40%～45%的目标顺利实现,要实施合理的减排调控政策以及调整能源消费结构。

Through building EKC curve for carbon dioxide emissions intensity and per capita GDP and joining the variables of energy consumption structure in this model, the relationship among China＇s energy consumption struc- ture, the level of economic development and carbon emissions intensity is discussed. The results indieate that the carbon intensity presents inverted N-shape with the variation of real per capita GDP, i. e. first carbon intensity de- clines sharply with the increase of real per capita GDP, then genteelly increases to a certain level, and then sharply dropdowns. Energy consumption structure affects carbon intensity. The carbon emissions intensity is proportional to the coal consumption, that is to say, the greater the coal consumption ratio is, the greater the carbon intensity. Sce- nario analysis on the relationship between economic development and carbon emissions shows that the task of emis- sion-reduction in China is arduous. In order to fulfill the promises of reducing CO2 emissions per unit GDP by 40% to 45% in 2020 compared with the level of 2005, we should carry out proper emissions control policies, and adjust energy consumption structure.