考虑城市发展水平综合评分的城市电力负荷密度预测法

Methods of city power load density prediction with the comprehensive score of urban development level considering

针对负荷密度指标法计算量大、过程复杂、预测精度依赖于大量样本数据的问题,提出基于城市发展水平综合评分的预测法,采用主成分分析法计算城市发展水平综合评分指标,利用该指标和趋势外推技术预测城市的负荷密度值.通过对8个城市的负荷密度值及城市发展水平综合评分值做比较分析,预测其中某一城市的负荷密度值,结果表明预测计算过程简单方便,具有很好的预测效果.

In view of the past load density target methods which mean the problem of the large a- mount of calculation, the complicated process and the prediction accuracy depending on a large number of samples data, this paper put forward a kind of city power load density prediction method which is based on the comprehensive score of urban development level. The comprehen- sive score was calculated by the principal component analysis method. By using the score and the technique of trend outside pushing, the city power load density was predicted. One city＇s load density value was predicted with comparing load density values and scores of eight cities. Results showed that the computation process was simple and convenient, and the prediction method had a good performance.