簸箕柳种内杂交F_1群体株高生长曲线的拟合

Modeling and analyzing the dynamic growth for progeny in a full-sib family of Salix xuzhouenesis

对簸箕柳F1杂交组合的450株子代在1 a内的苗高生长进行了测定,利用Logistic、Gompertz和Von Bertalanffy等3种非线性模型对其生长变化规律进行拟合及分析,结果显示,3种模型的拟合度(R2)均在0.98以上。Logistic和Gompertz模型的早期拟合值与实际值偏离较大,而Von Bertalanffy模型在整个测定时期其拟合值与实际值均很接近,拟合度可达0.994。由此可建立理想的统计模型来追踪簸箕柳F1苗高生长率的变化。

In this study, we periodically measured the growth increments of 450 progeny in F1 , a fully sib family of the annually harvesting basket willow （Salix xuzhouenesis）. Growth rhythm was fit and analysed using different non-linear models of Logistic, Gompertz and Von Bertalanffy. The results showed that the indices of fitness （R2 ） of these three models were all up to 0.98. However, the expected values obtained with Logistic and Gompertz models diverged signifi- cantly from the observed values at the beginning growth stage. By contrast, the expected value of Von Bertalanffy model fit well with the observed value through the whole growth season, and with the highest RE of 0. 994. We established the ideal statistical model that can be used to track the dynamic changes in the growth rates of a basket willow pedigree. This study provided essential information for learning the dynamic expression of genes underlying the dynamic growth rates for S. xuzhouensis.