基于气象-地形-水文-地质-人文耦合的滑坡灾害空间预警研究

Research on Landslide Hazard Space Early Warning Based on Meteorological-physiognomy-hydrology-geology-humanity Coupling

广东省小流域地区滑坡灾害具有多发性、广泛性和严重性的特点,严重影响山区社会安定和经济发展。长期以来区域滑坡灾害预警和单体地质灾害稳定性研究总是在两个不同的体系下进行,二者缺乏有机联系,常用的滑坡灾害预警单元也不能反映成灾机理。以广东省梅州市程江流域的松岗小流域为研究区域,以斜坡单元为基本单元,以气象、水文、人文过程为主要参数,通过分析各参数与灾害形成的内在关系,结合GIS技术,构建气象-地形-水文-地质-人文耦合模型,并通过历史数据对模型进行验证,结果表明,该模型不仅提高了滑坡预测的空间精度,而且可对特定降雨条件下的滑坡灾害进行客观有效地预测。

The small watershed in Guangdong Province is suffered greatly from landslide hazards, which are multiple, wide and severe, could affect seriously the social stability and economic development of the mountainous regions. The research methods of regional landslide disaster prediction and monomer geological disaster stability have been adopted under two different technology systems for a long time. However, the two systems are lock of or- ganic relation, and the usual warning unit of landslide hazard can not reflect the formation mechanism of landslide. The Songgang small watershed of Chengjiang watershed in Meizhou City in China is selected as the study area. Slope unit is fixed as a basic unit, meteorological, hydrology, and humanity process are used as major parameters, based on analysis on the inner relationship between the parameter and disaster formation, and combining with GIS techniques, a model for Meteorological-physiognomy-hydrology- geology-humanity Coupling is established. The model is further verified according to historical data. Results show that the model could evidently increase predic- tion accuracy and could predict potential risks effectively.