基于模糊综合判别的森林火险等级预报研究

Study on Grade Prediction on Forest Fire Based on Fussy Synthetic Discrimimant

森林火险气象因子的预报具有很大的不确定和模糊性,而依赖于气象预报因子的森林火险预报同样具有等级判别的模糊性。以海南岛森林火险气象等级预报为例建立森林火险预报模糊数学模型,研究建立森林火险预报模糊综合判别数学模型的关键技术,并分析对比模糊数学模型与其它常用森林火险预报方法模型的优劣。结果表明模糊数学模型在海南岛森林火险等级预报中显现出明显优势,它能够更好地分辨出高森林火险与低森林火险,较好反映森林火险等级与气象因子之间存在的复杂关系。

Meteorological factor prediction on forest fire is of great uncertainty and ambiguity, and prediction on forest fire, which is dependent on weather forecast factor, is of ambiguity in grade determination. Taking mete- orological grade prediction on forest fire of Hainan Island as an example, a fuzzy mathematical model for forest fire prediction is established, key technologies on establishment of a mathematical model of fuzzy synthetic discrimina- tion are studied, and a comparison between the fuzzy mathematical model and models based on other methods is done. The results reveal that the fuzzy mathematical model in the Hainan Island case shows obvious advantages, and it can better identify high and low forest fire and clearly reflect the complex relation between the fire danger rat- ing and meteorological factor.