影响耐用品消费需求的因素研究——来自美国家庭汽车消费市场的经验分析

Study on Influence Factors on Durable Goods Consumption——An Empirical Analysis Based on American Family Car Market

基于VAR模型和脉冲响应函数的分析方法,对影响新车消费需求的因素进行了经验分析。结果表明:二手汽车交易需求是影响新车消费需求最为重要的因素,其影响要超过个人收入支出,前者对新车交易需求所造成冲击的波动效应约为4.8%,后者约为0.09%。并针对造成这一现象的原因,进行了相应的理论分析,同时还运用PEARSON相关检验和构建的关于新车消费需求的Logsitic回归模型,对得到的结论进行了进一步的验证,结果证明,之前的结论具有很好的稳健性。

This paper, based on the VAR model and impulse response function analysis methods, tests the factors which im- pact the new ear consumption demand. The result shows that： the used car consumption demand is the most important fac- tors. Its impact is far more than personal income and consumption, the former demand for new car transactions caused by the impact of the ripple effect of about 4.8%, and the latter is about 0.09%. Then it analyzed the reasons for this phenomenon, while use the PEARSON test and build on the new car consumption demand Logistic regression model to further verify the a- bove conclusion, the result shows that the earlier conclusions are robust.