基于缴费率调整的养老保险制度可持续运行能力分析

An Analysis of Sustainable Operation Capacity of Endowment Insurance System based on Different Contribution Rates

作为养老保险制度重要的制度变量,养老保险缴费率深刻地影响着我国养老保险的未来发展走向。如何基于我国经济增长的现状调整缴费率,以实现养老保险制度的可持续性,成为目前养老保险改革的一项重要任务。本文通过构建基本养老保险个人账户缴费率模型和养老保险基金收支预测精算模型,分析个人账户缴费率变动路径,并模拟分析宏观经济放缓情境下养老保险制度的可持续运行能力。研究显示:在经济增速放缓的情况下,基本养老保险在2018年将收不抵支;若将个人账户缴费率适当提高至14%、再逐步下调至6%,可以增强基本养老保险基金中长期平衡能力,并推迟养老基金缺口的出现。

As an important system variable in endowment insurance system, the contribution rate has a profound impact on the future Chinese endowment insurance system. In order to make this system be more sustainable, one of the most impending missions is to adjust the contribution rate at the base of the development situation of Chinese economy. In this paper, we analyze the sustainability of endowment insurance system in the current slowing c environment and the change path of contribution rate of individual account by building the contribution rate model of individual ac- count and the actuarial model on payment balance of endowment insurance fund. According to the study, under the cir- cumstances of economic slowdown, the pension fund would suffer expense excessing revenue in 2018. If the contribution rate of personal account appropriately increases to 14%, then gradually declines to 6%, which can enhance the long - term balance of the basic endowment insurance fund, and postpone the pension fund gap.