汇率制度能影响外汇市场压力和央行干预吗

Can Exchange Rate Regime Influence Exchange Market Pressure and Central Bank's Intervention?

按照Stavarek(2007)的方法和标准,分别计算了2002年1月到2011年12月期间人民币对美元的外汇市场压力及中央银行干预指数。结果显示,人民币实行参考一篮子货币的汇率制度与盯住美元的汇率制度相比,不仅没有减轻外汇市场压力,反而加大了外汇干预压力。汇率制度不是影响外汇市场压力的决定因素,但不同的汇率制度却对我国央行外汇市场干预程度产生了较大的影响。在人民币实行参考一篮子货币的汇率制度下,央行干预程度明显降低,汇率决定的市场化程度相应提高。

Based on the standard and method put forward by Stavarek（2007）,the paper calculates EMP of the RMB against the U.S.dollar and central bank intervention index for China from January 2002 to December 2011.The results indicate that the change of exchange rate regime has different effects on exchange market pressure and foreign exchange market intervention.EMP is larger when the RMB pegged to a basket of currencies than it pegged to the US dollar,exchange rate regime is not the decision factor of EMP;but different exchange rate regime has more influences on foreign exchange intervention by China’s central bank.During the period of RMB pegged to a basket of currencies,the degree of central bank’s foreign exchange intervention is clearly declining,RMB’s exchange rate regime is getting more and more market oriented,exchange rate regime influences directly the degree of central bank’s foreign exchange intervention.