基于综合模型的电力系统中长期负荷预测方法研究

Study on power system load prediction method for medium and long term based on comprehensive model

负荷预测是电力系统规划、运行的基础和重要前提。介绍了综合模型法的原理,建立了新的综合预测模型并利用方差倒数法确定了各单一模型的加权系数。算例分析表明,综合模型法的预测精度要高于单一模型法。

The load prediction is the base and important premise for power system planning and operation.The principle of the comprehensive model method was introduced.A new comprehensive prediction model was established,and using the variance reciprocal method,the weighting coefficients of each single model were determined.The analysis of calculation examples shows that the prediction precision of the comprehensive model method is higher than the prediction precisions of each single model method.