摘要
通过布放在台湾海峡5个浮标冬季(2010年12月至2011年2月)的实测数据对MM5风场的预报结果进行了检验。从空间上看,平潭以北预测风速比实测风速偏高,南部则偏低;随着计算时长的增加,MM5模式预报的平均风速有增加的趋势。通过综合评价检验方法,该模式的短期预报较长期预报效果好。将MM5模式的结果用于台湾海峡冬季平均风场的研究,预测风场和实测风场基本吻合,但台湾海峡靠近台湾一侧模式的平均风速比之前的研究偏小。整体上看MM5较好的体现了台湾海峡冬季风场特点,可以为该区的业务化预报提供参考。
The measured data in winter 2010 （from December 2010 to February 2011） are used to examine MM5 simulation results. The results show that the simulated wind speed is higher than the observed one at the north of Pingtan, but lower in the south. The averaged wind speed is increasing with prediction lead time increas- es. Short-term forecasts results are better than long-term ones. MM5 model output is validated in the Taiwan Strait. The simulated wind speed is smaller than that in previous studies near the Taiwan side. Overall, the perfor- mance of MM5 model well presents the characteristics of wind field in winter in the Taiwan Strait. It can provide a reference for operational forecasting in this area.
出处
《海洋预报》
北大核心
2013年第3期32-39,共8页
Marine Forecasts
