摘要
Following more than two decades of rapid expansion,China’s economy has recently gravitated towards a pattern of"steady growth."In response to the economic deceleration,China s economic policies have adopted a target of"growth stabilization and restructuring."This policy shift marks a milestone in China’s economic development.Predictably,great changes will take place in China s economic growth,system and policies.
Following more than two decades of rapid expansion, China＇s economy has recently gravitated towards a pattern of ＂steady growth.＂ In response to the economic deceleration, China＇s economic policies have adopted a target of＂growth stabilization and restructuring.＂ This policy shift marks a milestone in China＇s economic development. Predictably, great changes will take place in China＇s economic growth, system and policies. In response to the global financial crisis of 2008, China introduced a large macroeconomic stimulus package that helped maintain growth rates above 8%. However, this did not prevent China＇s economy from eventually sliding into a downward spiral. Annual growth rates dropped to 7.8% in 2012, down from 9.2% in 2011, and the deceleration showed no sign of improvement in the first five months of 2013. Most economists and research institutions have estimated a substantial decline in China＇s potential economic growth. According to some scholars, China＇s potential GDP, which saw growth rates on average of 10.5% between 2006 and 2010, will drop to an average of 7.2% between 2011 and 2015, and eventually settle at approximately 6.1% between 2016 and 2020. Nevertheless, China＇s economy has avoided a hard landing. Even with a 7% growth rate, China continues to be one of the fastest growing economies in the world. China remains in the middle stage of industrialization. Rapid growth largely depends on the industrial sector, and in point of fact, value-added growth of large industries in China reached 10.0% in 2012 and 9.3% and 9.2% respectively in April and May 2013, which outpaced GDP growth rates. Without advanced industries, it will be impossible for China to resolve its economic, social and environmental issues. Therefore, China＇s economic development, especially within the industrial sector, requires progress more than stability. By maintaining economic stability, China aims to avoid a hard landing and usher in a new stage of development. In the interest of fair competition, China should attach greater importance to long-term effectsand pursue prudent and moderate policy intervention instead of resorting to excessive stimulus and subsidies. Businesses should abandon the mindset of making windfall profits through speculation and they should exhibit more patience and commit themselves to innovation in order to facilitate enhanced international competitiveness and sustainable development. China should take steps to encourage quality, balanced and environmentally healthy business practices. All industries, regardless of whether they are labor-, capital- or technology-intensive, should improve their level of quality and increase intemational competitiveness. Industrial structure and regional layout should be made more reasonable. Most of China＇s industries remain on medium and low technology level, with uneven distribution. It is China＇s long-term strategy to complete industrial dispersion from prosperous regions to interior provinces. With growing public environmental awareness, China should adopt cleaner practices of industrial activity. Environmental challenges cannot be addressed at the expense of economic stagnation nor can sustainable development be achieved regardless of environmental restraints. Environmental risks arising from industrial activities should be overcome with the adoption of advanced technologies and higher environmental standards for sustainable industrial development. Stated concisely, China＇s rapid growth is giving way to steady progress in its new stage of economic development and industrialization. Economic systems are organic in nature deriving their developmental vitality from gradually incorporating a multitude of individual microeconomic entities. Government is actually unable to alter their behavior toward optimization. Compared with excessive and misguided intervention that may result in economic deviations, it is more advisable for China to adopt a prudent and steady strategy of economic growth.
