江苏能源消费的碳排放统计分析及因素分解

Analysis on Energy Carbon Emission and its Decomposition in Jiangsu

发展低碳经济必须了解碳排放量,首先计算出1990—2010年江苏能源消费的碳排放量,并进行统计分析;继而运用因素分解法分析经济总量、产业结构及产业碳排放强度对江苏能源消费碳排放量的影响。研究结果表明,经济增长对碳排放产生最大的正面影响,产业结构的影响不明显,产业的碳排放强度不稳定且为正面影响,产业的技术效率未得以充分发挥。最后提出了减少碳排放的相关建议。

Carbon emission must be known in developing low - carbon economy. The amount of carbon emission in energy consumption in Jiangsu province is calculated from 1990 to 2010, and then is statistically analyzed. On this basis, the article analyzes the contribution of economic scale, industrial structure and carbon emission intensity, using the factor decomposition method. It shows that the economy scale is a primary drive factor; industrial structure is not obvious until 2006： the carbon emission intensity is not stable, and does not decrease with the improvement of technology, which shows that the current technology has not got its advantages. Finally, some suggestions are orooosed.