空分设备爆炸的突变理论分析

Theoretical analysis of the catastrophic explosion in the air separation plants

空分设备爆炸事故的发生常以一种连续的形式突然跳跃变化到不连续的形式,这种突变用传统的微积分方法难以描述。采用基于突变理论的尖点突变模型对空分设备爆炸事故进行了主成分分析,并用数据拟合建立了空分设备的突变理论数学表达式。用所建立的空间几何模型对事故的发生过程进行了描述。结果表明,任何一个不安全因素都会造成空分设备的重特大爆炸事故,空分设备的不安全因素越多,其状态越不稳定,越易发生特重大事故。

The paper is inclined to present a theoretical analysis of the catastrophic explosion in the air separation plants which usually take place in an evolutionary form from the continuous manner to a discontinuous one unexpectedly. The analysis of this nature has been done traditionally by taking it as a discontinuous process. Based on the cusp-catastrophe model of catastrophe theory, we would like to take the problem of the unexpected blasts of the air separation as a case to be treated by the principal component analysis, trying to establish the data-fitting mathematical expression for air separation plants. In 1990 s, we have conducted the so-called principal component analysis of a lot of serious air-separation-plant accidents and then built up a cusp-catastrophe-model math expression through data fitting. In orderto establishthe mathematical expression, we have combined the air separation equipment of faulttree modelwiththe settingup of the special air separation plant accident tree, which is of great structural importance coefficient to the air separation plant accident scenarios. Comparing the mathematical expression with the degree of the fault tree probability,we have determined the proper advantages disregard of the probability of the basic events incidence, which is likely to be helpful to avoid the problem of the ambiguous incidence probability of the basic events that may lead to such accidents. In other words,the premise of the incidence probability of each basic event is likely to be equal to the analysis of the incidence probability of each basic event. Thus, it can be confirmed that the processes of the accidents can be dealt with by a space geometric model of catastrophe theory. It indicates that the incidence of the explosion acc-i dents in the air separation plant does not come about merely due to any single factor. It shows that every unsafety factor can cause the ambiguous incidence equally, rather it is due to a significant incentive factor. The more unsafe the significant factor in the air separation plant is, the greater dangerous or instable the state of the air separation plantwill be and the specifically significant major accident of the air separation plant is more likely to take place.